A Political Discourse.
Tom: what the fuck is all this about man?
Harry: I am going to tell you about the nuclear deal that India and U.S. are trying to enter into.
Tom: and why should I be listening to this?
Harry: hmmm, lets see … (pause) … ‘cause it makes good small talk, you can get chicks to talk to you at parties and stuff.
Tom: no wonder you don’t have a girl
Harry: hey! I have a girl!
Tom: yeah right, any girl who happens to turn her head towards you when you are looking at her, is your girl… and you are always ogling at them.
Harry: I must protest but in the interest of the author who is penning this conversation I’ll put it away for the time being and I’ll tell you about the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Tom: Gaaaaaaaaawd! How many times do I have to tell you that I don’t want to listen….. ouch! Aaah! Stop hitting me.
Harry: I did not hit you.
Tom: ???
Harry: The author did.
Tom: wtf! (slap slap) stop!
Harry: stop cussing and you wont get hit.
Tom: fu….ouch! This is insane. What the devil is this thing.
Harry: It’s the author so, just shut up and listen to the words that he puts in my mouth.
Tom: I don’t seem to have fuc (slap)…. what the (slap)…. I (slap)…. Ok(slap) … WHAT! I said OKAY (gets pat on the shoulder while indignantly shaking his head). Alright man speak. Whats all this deal thingie?
Harry: Well, its just a deal both the parties get something and if all goes well they are supposed to live happily ever after.
Tom: So whats India getting?
Harry: Lets see It’ll be recognised as a responsible nuclear power with advanced technology and once it fulfills its obligations in the deal it’ll get help from NSG countries which
Tom: Whoa! Wait a minute. NSG?
Harry: That stands for Nuclear suppliers group. You see, when India tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, the Americans did not like it. They so did not like it that they formed a group of countries and called themselves NSG. These guys got together and said ‘okay, even third world shit like India has nuclear weapons now. They’ll wipe themselves from the face of the planet and take us along with them. We got to do something about this. Here is what we do: we will put in rules and regulations so that whenever we transfer nuclear technology and fuel to a country which doesn’t have weapons we are assured that our help is not used to make weapons’ and so they use two sets of rules right now: The NSG guidelines and the IAEA (Int’l Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards.
Tom: I don’t believe they called India third world shit man. They are mature people..
Harry: One American President is known to have referred to one Indian PM as a Witch. But yes they did not call India ‘third world shit’. I was just spicing it up.
Tom: No use man its so booooooooring that even… whats her name?... Sylvia saint won’t be able to spice it up. WHACK! Ouch! (shouts) HE made me say it! (now whispers) the author is into porn man. WHACK! (mumbles) asshole.
Harry: That is untrue. The author is not into porn, (pause) currently. However, as a well educated man he makes sure that he knows a li’l something about everything. He likes to be knowledgeable.
Tom: yeah whatever. So what does India get out of it?
Harry: India gets to have a citizen with very balanced and mature views on wide ranging topics including pornography.
Tom: I meant from the deal man…what else does India get?
Harry: Yes, the deal … India will get help from NSG countries. They’ll give fuel to India’s reactors and give tech. support and stuff.
Tom: But then, what makes them so sure that India will not use the stuff to make weapons.
Harry: That assurance is included in the deal as well. India will have to separate its nuclear facilities into civilian (those which produce power) and military (those which make weapons). Once it does that, it has to accept IAEA safeguards on its civilian facilities and these safeguards will give confidence to NSG members that their stuff will remain where its intended to … that is in civilian facilities.
Tom: Seems fair man. I mean if somebody is doing business with you to make electricity, it would not be right to use their services to make weapons. But what are these safeguards anyways.
Harry: well, people from IAEA will monitor fuel and equipment that goes in and goes out of the facility. They’ll try to account for all the material. For instance if you take some uranium from a reactor and put it into a bomb, then they are supposed to catch you before you put the bomb in a missile and stop you before you put the missile on a launch pad. These people will also make sudden inspections of a facility. They’ll check if all the personnel are well dressed and well behaved or not. If they….(interrupted)
Tom: what!
Harry: kidding.
Tom: I find no humour in it. (Rip). HE TORE MY POCKET.! This is getting serious man.
Harry: just be patient and mind your words. He’ll let you off once this is over.
Tom: I think he is an egomaniac…(pause)…. I think he’s going to kill me for saying that… Tell my girl that I loved her. Tell her, (gulp) that, that… I am sorry for … all the … premature …
Harry: premature what.?
Tom: wait a min. he did not hit me.
Harry: The author wants you to know that we can take a coffee and cigarettes break while he contemplates upon your comment on him.
Tom: Thank God!
Harry: The author is our God.
Harry: I am going to tell you about the nuclear deal that India and U.S. are trying to enter into.
Tom: and why should I be listening to this?
Harry: hmmm, lets see … (pause) … ‘cause it makes good small talk, you can get chicks to talk to you at parties and stuff.
Tom: no wonder you don’t have a girl
Harry: hey! I have a girl!
Tom: yeah right, any girl who happens to turn her head towards you when you are looking at her, is your girl… and you are always ogling at them.
Harry: I must protest but in the interest of the author who is penning this conversation I’ll put it away for the time being and I’ll tell you about the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Tom: Gaaaaaaaaawd! How many times do I have to tell you that I don’t want to listen….. ouch! Aaah! Stop hitting me.
Harry: I did not hit you.
Tom: ???
Harry: The author did.
Tom: wtf! (slap slap) stop!
Harry: stop cussing and you wont get hit.
Tom: fu….ouch! This is insane. What the devil is this thing.
Harry: It’s the author so, just shut up and listen to the words that he puts in my mouth.
Tom: I don’t seem to have fuc (slap)…. what the (slap)…. I (slap)…. Ok(slap) … WHAT! I said OKAY (gets pat on the shoulder while indignantly shaking his head). Alright man speak. Whats all this deal thingie?
Harry: Well, its just a deal both the parties get something and if all goes well they are supposed to live happily ever after.
Tom: So whats India getting?
Harry: Lets see It’ll be recognised as a responsible nuclear power with advanced technology and once it fulfills its obligations in the deal it’ll get help from NSG countries which
Tom: Whoa! Wait a minute. NSG?
Harry: That stands for Nuclear suppliers group. You see, when India tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, the Americans did not like it. They so did not like it that they formed a group of countries and called themselves NSG. These guys got together and said ‘okay, even third world shit like India has nuclear weapons now. They’ll wipe themselves from the face of the planet and take us along with them. We got to do something about this. Here is what we do: we will put in rules and regulations so that whenever we transfer nuclear technology and fuel to a country which doesn’t have weapons we are assured that our help is not used to make weapons’ and so they use two sets of rules right now: The NSG guidelines and the IAEA (Int’l Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards.
Tom: I don’t believe they called India third world shit man. They are mature people..
Harry: One American President is known to have referred to one Indian PM as a Witch. But yes they did not call India ‘third world shit’. I was just spicing it up.
Tom: No use man its so booooooooring that even… whats her name?... Sylvia saint won’t be able to spice it up. WHACK! Ouch! (shouts) HE made me say it! (now whispers) the author is into porn man. WHACK! (mumbles) asshole.
Harry: That is untrue. The author is not into porn, (pause) currently. However, as a well educated man he makes sure that he knows a li’l something about everything. He likes to be knowledgeable.
Tom: yeah whatever. So what does India get out of it?
Harry: India gets to have a citizen with very balanced and mature views on wide ranging topics including pornography.
Tom: I meant from the deal man…what else does India get?
Harry: Yes, the deal … India will get help from NSG countries. They’ll give fuel to India’s reactors and give tech. support and stuff.
Tom: But then, what makes them so sure that India will not use the stuff to make weapons.
Harry: That assurance is included in the deal as well. India will have to separate its nuclear facilities into civilian (those which produce power) and military (those which make weapons). Once it does that, it has to accept IAEA safeguards on its civilian facilities and these safeguards will give confidence to NSG members that their stuff will remain where its intended to … that is in civilian facilities.
Tom: Seems fair man. I mean if somebody is doing business with you to make electricity, it would not be right to use their services to make weapons. But what are these safeguards anyways.
Harry: well, people from IAEA will monitor fuel and equipment that goes in and goes out of the facility. They’ll try to account for all the material. For instance if you take some uranium from a reactor and put it into a bomb, then they are supposed to catch you before you put the bomb in a missile and stop you before you put the missile on a launch pad. These people will also make sudden inspections of a facility. They’ll check if all the personnel are well dressed and well behaved or not. If they….(interrupted)
Tom: what!
Harry: kidding.
Tom: I find no humour in it. (Rip). HE TORE MY POCKET.! This is getting serious man.
Harry: just be patient and mind your words. He’ll let you off once this is over.
Tom: I think he is an egomaniac…(pause)…. I think he’s going to kill me for saying that… Tell my girl that I loved her. Tell her, (gulp) that, that… I am sorry for … all the … premature …
Harry: premature what.?
Tom: wait a min. he did not hit me.
Harry: The author wants you to know that we can take a coffee and cigarettes break while he contemplates upon your comment on him.
Tom: Thank God!
Harry: The author is our God.
Tom: This is not Coffee this is tea. I thought I was going to get Coffee… and these are not cigarettes! These are fucking candy sticks! What kind of a joke is this? Why doesn’t this author guy leave us alone.
Harry: I really don’t think you’d want him to leave us alone ‘cause once he does that we’ll cease to exist.
Tom: Thanks that helps.
Harry: So, the deal… Why Americans are going for it is not directly apparent. Because they seem to be getting very little at least on paper … India will support America’s initiative to bring in the FMCT(Fissile Missile Cutoff Treaty), a treaty which will cap the weapons capable fissile material (the nuclear material used to make bombs) of all signatory nations to the levels at the time of the treaty coming into force. Also India restated its commitment to its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing.
Tom: That’s very good. It’s definitely a positive thing. But what is America getting out of it.
Harry: well nothing as tangible as what India is getting but definitely much more.
Tom: how is that?
Harry: Look, the FMCT is not going to come into force anytime soon. America wants it ‘cause its finding it hard to maintain all those weapons it built up during the cold war. It finally decided that it has enough. But, it doesn’t want countries like china amassing weapons ‘cause that would amount to dilution of their power. So they had this brilliant idea to put a freeze on all weapons material and they called the idea FMCT. Obvoiusly, China wont buy it. They want weapons too. If the chinese dont sign FMCT nobody will. So the FMCT is a non issue for atleast a coupla decades. As for the Indian moratorium on testing, its still unilateral as in India has not gone into an agreement with an other country saying that it wont test weapons. So, that too is basically not a concrete thing.
Tom: What is America getting out of it then?
Harry: America wants its people to believe that they are making the world safer. But its hard to believe that once you graduate from kindergarten in a non-american school.
Tom: Just give me the answer what is America getting out of the deal?
Harry: An ally. An ally which will help America get a hold on the Asian scenario.
Tom: Why don’t they hook up the Chinese then? they are stronger than the Indians.
Harry: The Americans don’t like the Chinese. It’s traditional rivalry. China was and still is a Soviet ally. If they make friends with Chinese they might lose the Japanese ‘cause china and japan have problems with each other. In fact America follows what is called as a ‘China containment policy’
Tom: Chinese are not a virus!
Harry: Apparently somebody is treating them like one.
Tom: So you are telling me that America is making friends with India so that they can fight the Chinese.
Harry: I would not say ‘friends’, ‘allies’ more like. They are trying to make allies and If I had to use ‘fight’ I’d use it in the context of economic and political warfare not military.
Tom: whatever, both the parties seem to be getting something out of it, so it seems like a fine deal to me. They should sign it. End of discussion let me go now.
Harry: No! there is an issue here.
Tom: what?
Harry: America doesn’t seem to like the way India is separating its facilities into civilian and nuclear.
Tom: whats the fuss about separation. If the reactor is civilian its civilian if its military its military. Whats the big deal about it?
Harry: its not so simple. Nuclear substances are dual use items. They can be used to generate power or make bombs. So, India uses its reactors to generate power and also to make plutonium for the bombs.
Tom: It does?
Harry: Yes it does.
Tom: I don’t think I like India so much now. Why do they need nuclear weapons anyway?
Harry: The same reason why America, Russia, UK, Pakistan and shit loads of other countries need them.
Tom: But these countries are responsible nations. They can manage their reactors and all. They wont let accidents happen. But can’t say that about Indians you know. They are a careless bunch.
Harry: If you look at Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Three miles island, Chernobyl, falkland’s incident, AQ Khan network… its really hard to call them anything but responsible and safe. It’s a weapon for god’s sake. How can it be safe?
Tom: Well weapons may not be safe but they can keep you safe you know.
Harry: Yes, and that is India’s policy regarding nuclear weapons, Minimum credible deterrence (MCD). Indians say that they’ll have just enough weapons to scare off other countries… to prevent any attack or aggression. There is no way to validate how much is required to do that, nor is there any way to validate if they actual follow the policy. But then that’s what the Indians say.
Tom: I think this MCD thing is bull! (Laughs) scaring off other countries! (laughs louder) ... it wont work
Harry: Well, why do you think North Korea has not been attacked even though it has declared that it has weapons? Iraq was invaded on the claim that they have WMDs why not North Korea?
Tom: That only proves that MCD is bullshit, Iraq got invaded ‘cause it had WMDs. It’s only a matter of time before N. Koreans get it from the americans.
Harry: Iraq did not have WMDs as we now know. It was only CLAIMED that it has WMDs
Tom: The Americans did not know that before they went to war..
Harry: The Americans certainly did not. But if you are telling me that whoever makes those decisions in America did not, then you are either retarded or you just don’t care or both.
Tom: you better explain before you call me names. You know I am better than you at that mister genius.
Harry: If somebody had a WMD would you announce openly that you are coming to get him? Would you drive him to desperation? Would you put him in a position where he is forced to use everything he has against you? Or would you negotiate? There are international forums to address such issues. There is a well established diplomatic mechanism to defuse the situation and this is the way America and the rest of the world is dealing with the North Korean threat and that’s because that threat is very real. America did not do that in the case of Iraq because it was a virtual threat, it was in fact - not a threat at it was an opportunity.
Tom: whatever but I really don’t think I buy ‘driving saddam to desperation’ argument. I think once the Americans got in to Iraq saddam had no chance of deploying WMDs had he possessed any.
Harry: All it takes to deploy a chemical or biological weapon is a smuggler. You just have to take it in to enemy territory somehow.
Tom: That’s not easy man.
Harry: For you and me may be. But its very easy for somebody who wants to do that. Underestimating your enemy’s capabilities is one mistake that American authorities would not have done right after nine eleven. I don’t think so. They did not under estimate saddam’s abilities with WMDs ‘cause they knew that he did not have any.
Tom: alright okay anything you say. I really don’t want to talk about this Minimum credible deterrence thing. All I understand from what you say is that you seem to be a believer in nuclear weapons. You seem to be supporting India’s senseless obsession with nuclear weapons. You seem to be okay with more and more countries having weapons.
Harry: No! I am not! Nobody can be. But it is impossible to envisage a situation where a few countries have nuclear capabilities and the rest voluntarily decide to not have them. It simply won’t work. It is illogical to even attempt confining nuclear weapons to a few states. Its simple, if you have to survive in a rough neighbourhood, then you have to be just as rough. It’s a jungle out there and every one wants to hunt. The only alternative to nuclear weapons is total disarmament, not non-proliferation. There are no middle paths here. It is well accepted and in fact its mentioned as the longterm goal of the Non proliferation treaty as well.
Tom: India did not sign the Non proliferation treaty.
Harry: There is a reason for that. The treaty is discriminatory.
Tom: Int’l treaties are not discriminatory man. All nation states are treated equal.
Harry: Untrue on both counts. In 1968 the NPT said ‘if you have a weapon fine. Don’t give it to anyone else… if you don’t have a weapon we are sorry, please sign here and don’t ever dream of getting one’ and so it recognized 5 nuclear weapons states US, UK, China, Russia and France (joined later). Such discriminatory treatment is bound elicit resistance and it did. But many countries did fall in line. Right now only Pakistan, India, Cuba, Israel and North Korea are not signatories of the NPT. India for one argued that it will not sign a treaty unless the ethical grounds of such discriminatory treatment is justified and that the treaty should bring in total disarmament as an immediate goal, not as a long term objective.
Tom: I still think it should have signed it.
Harry: why?
Tom: It’d have helped non-proliferation. You know reducing nuclear weapons and stuff.
Harry: Why do you expect countries which do not have weapons to be ready to take on the responsibility of reducing the chances of nuclear war when countries which already have them do not?
Tom: America did take the responsibility. It pushed the NPT forward.
Harry: America tried to keep Non weapon states that way, and also to keep states with weapons that way. It tried to freeze the status quo while it was still on top. I would not call it responsible behavior. I call it self-centred, short sighted and narcissistic behaviour.
Tom: Well they have security issues.
Harry: Every goddamn country on the planet does.
Tom: Americans have the right to defend themselves by the best possible means.
Harry: So does everybody else.
Tom: Whats your point?
Harry: All I am saying is you cannot deny a sovereign state a right which another enjoys.
Its complete disarmament or nothing. The idea of non-proliferation is not unlike the idea trying to prevent a dam burst by sticking a finger in a crack in …
Tom: ummmmm now we are talking. (Whack!) alright go on…
Harry: So now Americans want to bring India’s breeder programme under safeguards by bringing it under the civilian list.
Tom: (grins) breeder programme huh! Interesting. Now I know why there are a billion of them.(rip! Rip!) my sleeeeves!
Harry: India has lots of thorium. But if you want to use it to generate power you first have to convert it to an isotope of Uranium (U233) and the breeder programme does just that. It is estimated that once this programme reaches its 3rd stage it’ll make India energy secure for about 300 years and that’s a huge thing for the Indians and the scientific community there has all their hopes pinned on it.
Tom: What difference does it make if they put it under safeguards… they can still make power can’t they?
Harry: In theory yes. In practice no. IAEA safeguards are restrictive irrespective of whatever bull shit they come up with. Rules and regulations are by definition restrictive and a restrictive and stifling environment is the last place where you'd expect creativity to blossom. Scientific research is a creative pursuit and like all other such pursuits it demands a hassle free environment and because the breeder programme is still in its developmental stages, the Indian scientists are strongly protesting against including it in the civilian reactor list that is, putting it under safeguards.
Tom: That’s a very flimsy argument you are giving me
Harry: There is more. The IAEA safeguards imply that India has to share certain aspects of its indigenous technology with IAEA., it is known that sharing it with the IEAE is equivalent to sharing it with the pentagon.
Tom: Its speculative even if its not the Americans are way ahead of Indians in technological prowess. I really don’t think that they’d give a shit about what the Indians are up to.
Harry: Not so ahead in breeder technology. Only two countries have knowledge of breeder technology. India and Russia. The Americans would want to know what the Indians are up to. And one more thing the Americans haven’t built a single power reactor since the mid 70’s they most probably don’t have anyone with hands on experience on building a reactor and those reactors are antiques. I really don’t accept that point you are trying to make.
Tom: But IEAE passing on information to the USA is certainly speculative. It has not been proven.
Harry: I agree. But the Indians have a very strong reason to put the breeder programme away from the safeguards – nuclear weapons. A breeder reactor pumps out weapons grade uranium directly, unlike say a Heavy water reactor. That means they can skip reprocessing of spent fuel which is expensive. That is the bottom line I guess - nuclear weapons.
Tom: I don’t like that.
Harry: what?
Tom: I mean hell! they’ll make weapons! America should definitely bring the breeder programme under safeguards.
Harry: That’s the American perspective. Every country has its interests.How are Indian effected if they put the breeder programme under safeguards? First of all India doesn’t need any technical help in this programme and even if it does only Russia can help it. Why would India want to put it under safeguards?
Tom: hmmmm to ensure that they don’t make more weapons.
Harry: I said why would INDIANS want to put it under safeguards?
Tom: well I donno. I don’t think they’d want to. But I think they should.
Harry: Should America put its reactors under safeguards?
Tom: Of course it should and I believe it does.
Harry: Yes it does put its reactors under IAEA safeguards and currently there are four american reactors under safeguards. Since 1981 IAEA inspected 16 of the 106 American nuclear facilities (there are about 400 reactors in the world by the way). India on the other hand has 15 nuclear reactors and IAEA safeguards are already in place at four of them. If only numbers had a voice India would not have had to fight so hard for recognition as a responsible nuclear power. But its might that speaks not numbers, not history, not what you did in the past, not your intentions, just might. Might did speak in this case... while America has the right to chose which reactors they’d want to place under safeguards India is being denied this very same right which according to the text of the deal it was supposed to have.
Tom: I don’t think this deal will go through unless somebody makes a compromise.
Harry: and I don’t think either party is ready to make one. Making a compromise me would be a very expensive mistake for India and an american compromise can't be sold to its people. By the way the deal has a lot more hurdles to pass. The nuclear facility separation plan has to be passed by US congress and then each of the NSG members have to ratify it only then the deal will come through.
Tom: what! Why? Why was I made to sit through this then?
Harry: Because the author is preparing for an exam where he needs to know stuff like this.
Tom: I feel sorry for this author guy. I think his life sucks (pow! Pow!).
Harry: It doesn’t he has a very laid back lifestyle. He doesn’t have to wake up on time or go to sleep on time. He is not associated with any instituitional\control structure. He is as free as he could ever be. He wont have such freedom as this ever again in his life.
Tom: For instance ….
Harry: For instance he’ll finish this post and we’ll both just vanish into a cloud of smoke.
Tom: I don’t believ … (zing! Zing! Two clouds of smoke appear where Tom and Harry were sitting. As the candysticks were rejoicing their increased chances of not landing in Tom or Harry’s stomach, they went up in smoke as well. So did the couches and so did the tea cups and so did the entire universe in which Tom and Harry used to live)
The author gets up stretches and lights a cigarette wondering why he wrote what he just wrote and if he should put it on his blog at all. He decides he will for somebody has to make Tom and Harry’s sacrifice worthwhile.
Wherez Dick...the irresolute neocon?
Posted by
Anonymous |
11:51 am, March 01, 2006